As the clock ticks down on Joe Biden’s presidency, Europe finds itself at a precarious juncture, grappling with its defense strategy amidst shifting geopolitical landscapes. Biden’s recent state visit to Germany was a brief yet significant affirmation of the United States’ enduring commitment to European security, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This war, the worst Europe has faced since World War II, has necessitated a close alliance with the U.S., which has historically provided military support and strategic guidance.
During his visit, Biden emphasized the urgency of continued assistance to Ukraine, stating, “We must keep going until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace.” However, with the November U.S. elections looming, the future of American support remains uncertain. If Biden’s administration ends, the U.S. foreign policy focus may pivot away from Europe, especially if a Republican candidate, such as Donald Trump, were to reclaim the presidency. Trump’s previous administration was marked by tension with NATO, raising concerns about future American support for Ukraine.
Germany, as the second-largest donor to Ukraine, has pledged to bolster its military capabilities. Yet, internal bureaucratic hurdles have hindered its promised military revamp. With Russian military investment continuing unabated, German intelligence warns of potential threats to NATO’s stability by the decade’s end.
Moreover, there are signs of “Ukraine fatigue” among European allies, as domestic challenges weigh heavily on governments. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces rising pressures from both the far right and far left, complicating his administration’s ability to maintain a strong stance against Russia.
In Berlin, Biden, Scholz, and leaders from the UK and France reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine, but specifics remain elusive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for decisive actions, including an invitation to NATO and the ability to utilize long-range missiles, but these requests have largely gone unaddressed.
As Biden concludes his presidency, both Kyiv and Moscow are keenly observing the dynamics of European leadership. The future of Ukraine hangs in the balance as Europe navigates its vulnerability at this critical moment. The time for decisive action is now; Europe must solidify its defense strategy while it still has the backing of its largest ally.
