The fate of EU leaders is set to be determined as the European Parliament convenes for the first time since the June elections. Tensions are high as the 720 lawmakers begin their five-year term, with the future of current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hanging in the balance.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has caused outrage among his EU counterparts by visiting Russia and China, was scheduled to address the parliament, but his speech was postponed due to a busy voting schedule.
As war rages on Europe’s doorstep, the bloc faces multiple challenges including a stagnant economy and growing global uncertainty. These are issues that the newly elected leaders will need to confront head-on.
Key Votes and Political Dynamics
On Tuesday, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will vote for the president of the parliament based in Strasbourg, France. Current speaker, 45-year-old Maltese conservative Roberta Metsola, is expected to secure another two-and-a-half-year mandate.
However, the most critical vote will take place on Thursday when lawmakers decide whether to extend von der Leyen’s term as commission chief for another five years. Since EU leaders struck a hard-fought deal on her candidacy in late June, von der Leyen has been actively seeking support from lawmakers in the main political groups. The outcome is uncertain, as she narrowly won her initial term by only nine votes in 2019.
“She needs to walk a fine line to get the support of different groups in the European Parliament,” said Elizabeth Kuiper, associate director of the European Policy Centre think tank. Von der Leyen must balance satisfying lawmakers focused on cutting carbon emissions and tackling climate change with those who seek fewer new environmental regulations.
Far Right Gains Influence
The far right made significant gains in the June elections within the 27-country bloc. Nevertheless, the centrist legislative coalition, comprised of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists, Democrats, and Liberals, remains the largest.
Von der Leyen’s EPP is the biggest political group in the parliament with 188 seats. In theory, with its coalition partners, it has the numbers to meet the 361-vote threshold. However, several MEPs have indicated they will vote against her in the secret ballot.
The new parliament will also vote for 14 vice presidents. Its political make-up is more complex than ever, with two far-right groups having larger numbers. The European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Brothers for Italy party, already has one vice president but is now seeking two.
A newly formed group known as Patriots for Europe, created by Orban and including France’s National Rally, is now the third-largest faction in parliament. They are vying for two vice-president spots as well. This group includes controversial figures such as Italian general Roberto Vannacci, author of a book with homophobic, misogynistic, and anti-migrant remarks.
Resistance to Far Right Influence
The far-right Patriots represent a red line for the centrist coalition. “We don’t want these MEPs to represent the institution,” said Pedro Lopez de Pablo, EPP spokesman, noting there were discussions to prevent the “extreme right and the friends of Putin” from gaining prominent positions.
Patriots MEPs could also be excluded from leading parliamentary committees next week. Patriots spokesman Alonso de Mendoza argued that a “cordon sanitaire” used by mainstream political parties to block the far right was “undemocratic.”
Analyst Kuiper observed that the “situation is still evolving.” The refusal of some MEPs to cooperate with the far right and von der Leyen’s fate “are closely linked as several groups have flagged their opposition to support the radical right,” she told AFP.
