Hezbollah, the militant Shiite group long considered Israel’s most formidable enemy in Lebanon, is now facing an unprecedented crisis. Israel’s recent assassination of its iconic leader Hassan Nasrallah, the elimination of its top commanders, and the destruction of its communications infrastructure have crippled the organization, forcing it to return to its roots in guerrilla warfare.
Nasrallah’s death in a massive Israeli airstrike near Beirut on September 27, 2024, came just days after he ironically invited Israeli troops to invade Lebanon, calling it a “historic opportunity” for Hezbollah. However, the loss of Nasrallah and most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, combined with the mass explosions of their communications systems, left the group in disarray.
In the wake of these devastating blows, Hezbollah is expected to revert to the guerrilla tactics it first employed in the 1980s when it was founded with Iran’s backing. Hezbollah originally operated as a militia, carrying out ambushes, roadside bombings, and other hit-and-run tactics, which may now become its primary strategy once more.
“The group is trying to reorganize, but rebuilding after these losses will take months or even years,” explained Christophe Ayad, a French journalist and expert on Hezbollah. He noted that Israel has neutralized much of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, including arms supplies, limiting its capacity to fight a conventional war.
While Israel continues its targeted strikes in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah’s diminished command structure and reliance on small, decentralized fighting units means it can still operate on a smaller scale. These units, made up of local fighters with intimate knowledge of Lebanon’s terrain, could carry out guerrilla tactics similar to those they employed during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s and during the 2006 war.
However, Hezbollah’s chances of a repeat of the 2006 “divine victory” seem slim. The group’s fighters, though battle-hardened after years of involvement in the Syrian Civil War, now face a vastly superior Israeli military, which has learned from past mistakes and is more prepared for Hezbollah’s strategies.
Even so, Ayad cautioned that Hezbollah may still be able to inflict heavy losses on Israeli forces in a protracted conflict, but the group’s ultimate survival is now at stake.
As Hezbollah struggles to adapt to these new realities, it is clear that Israel’s campaign against the group has fundamentally altered the balance of power in the region. The death of Nasrallah and the crippling of Hezbollah’s command structure have left the group weakened and facing an uncertain future.
