The Caribbean nation of Guyana narrowly escaped a harsh economic blow after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs, reducing the rate on Guyana’s exports from a punitive 38% to a more manageable 10%. While this shift brought momentary relief, it raised a deeper question: why was Guyana targeted so aggressively in the first place?
According to political commentator Francis Bailey, the answer lies in the growing geopolitical tug-of-war between the United States and China. In recent years, China has made significant inroads into Guyana’s economy, investing billions into infrastructure projects—roads, hospitals, hotels, and a major bridge currently under construction by a Chinese firm. These moves have raised alarm bells in Washington, which perceives China’s presence as a strategic threat in a region historically under U.S. influence.
Bailey believes the original 38% tariff was a calculated signal: “The U.S. is saying, ‘If you want our protection, reduce your ties with Beijing.’” This “protection” refers to Washington’s strong backing of Guyana in its territorial dispute with Venezuela over the resource-rich Essequibo region, which has seen a rise in Venezuelan aggression.
Ironically, the harshest tariffs were not aimed at Guyana’s lucrative oil or bauxite exports, which the U.S. still values, but at its sugar and fishing industries—sectors less critical to U.S. interests but vital to Guyanese livelihoods.
Guyana’s situation is not isolated. Across the Caribbean, governments are grappling with the ripple effects of Trump’s tariffs—not only on what they export to the U.S. but more urgently, on what they import. With U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods now soaring to 125%, Caribbean countries—many of which import the majority of their goods through the U.S.—are bracing for painful price hikes. Even Chinese products reexported via the U.S. are set to cost significantly more.
In Antigua and Barbuda, interior designer Carissa Warner says 90% of her materials come from the U.S. or China. “Some projects are on hold,” she admits. “I’m looking into growing food at home just to cut costs.”
The structural reliance on U.S. imports is deep, with some Caribbean nations sourcing up to 70% of consumer goods from the U.S. With local wages low, import duties high, and shipping costs climbing, the economic burden is growing heavier by the day.
Caribbean leaders are now calling for urgent action. Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the U.S., Sir Ronald Sanders, warns that America’s long-standing trade surplus with the region is becoming unsustainable. “We’ve been too dependent on the U.S. for too long,” he says, calling for greater diversification into new markets.
Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who chairs the regional bloc CARICOM, says the Caribbean must invest in agriculture, manufacturing, and South-South cooperation with partners in Africa, Latin America, and beyond. Her message to Washington is direct: “We are not your enemy. We are your friends. Work with us, not against us.”
Whether the Caribbean will successfully shift its economic trajectory remains to be seen. But Guyana’s experience serves as a stark warning—that in the new global power struggle, small nations may find themselves paying a high price for great power rivalries.
